19 July 2023
Despite the economic difficulties that China is going through, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) maintained its beef import expectations at 3.5 million tons, at the same record levels as in 2022,reports Tardaguila Agromarkets.
The USDA updated its expectations for production, consumption and international trade of the main meats. In the case of beef, it raised its export expectations due to higher volumes shipped from Brazil, Argentina, New Zealand, Australia and the United States, which was partially offset by downward corrections for the European Union, the United Kingdom and Mexico.
It is not a small thing that several of the big ones have a higher exportable balance than was forecast in April. In addition, the two most important ones (Brazil and Australia) have very competitive farm-to-slaughter prices, which allows them to accept lower export price proposals and continue doing good business. Argentina, liquidation of bellies as a consequence of the drought through, will also have a robust exportable balance. Therefore, from this point of view, there does not seem to be much room for a significant recovery in international market prices in the second half of the year.
From the import side, it is a positive sign that China’s import expectations are maintained. In return, it reduced imports from the European Union by 20,000 tons to 400,000 and raised those from Japan, Korea and the United States.
In the case of Uruguay, the USDA projects an exported volume of 485,000 tons this year, below the 513,000 in 2022 as a result of the drop in production.