After two years of slowdown and adjustments in the world economy, 2026 is shaping up to be a period of moderate but sustained recovery for the global leather business and its manufactures, especially high-end ones. This was confirmed by the fairs at the beginning of the year such as the fair in Milan and others, which showed an excellent level of activity. There was interest by key players in the sector to know directly the current offer of hides and skins.

In this sense, it is also interesting to know the market analysis, generated by the main investment banks and consulting firms in the world. Experts agree that the worst of the contractionary cycle is behind us and that the personal goods market – especially the luxury sector – will return to positive territory. The focus is on the United States, on a resilient Europe, a stable Japan and, above all, on an interesting revival of consumption in the huge market of China and most of the countries of Southeast Asia.

From an article in the newsletter La Concería and other media, we take some highlights of opinions that are respected by operators around the world.

Bain & Company estimates that, after a 2025 that would close at around €358,000 million in global sales of luxury personal goods, 2026 could register growth that could reach 5%. The United States and the Middle East appear to be the most dynamic poles, but the real strategic variable is once again China. If the Chinese consumer resumes spending levels closer to those prior to the real estate crisis and the health restrictions of previous years, growth could accelerate more strongly, generating a multiplier effect on leather-intensive categories such as leather goods, premium footwear and accessories.

McKinsey and Business of Fashion also foresee widespread improvements, driven by a creative shift in the big houses and a renewed investment in brand identity. For leather producers, this “creative reboot” implies concrete opportunities: new collections, relaunches of iconic lines and greater product rotation demand the development of differentiated, traceable materials with a strong innovation content. Although a part of aspirational consumers are limited by high prices and migrate towards fast fashion or second-hand proposals, the traditional customer of high-end items maintains purchasing power and demands quality, authenticity and verifiable sustainability.

For their part, Bernstein, UBS and Deutsche Bank agree to project sales increases of between 4% and 6% in 2026, with even greater improvements in profitability for the best-positioned groups. In this scenario, brands with a solid identity and control of their value chain will be the main beneficiaries. Leather goods and handbags – categories where leather is irreplaceable as a symbol of status, beauty and durability – continue to be pillars of the business.

Southeast Asia is emerging as a strategic region. Markets such as Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia show an expanding middle and upper class, greater digitalization and growing appetite for international brands. Added to this is intra-Asian tourism, which favors the purchase of premium items in regional commercial hubs. At the same time, China is not only a large market for final consumption but also a growing competitor to local brands that are gaining sophistication and attractiveness for the domestic consumer.

Consulting firms continue to point out that risks persist: trade tensions, tariffs, exchange rate volatility and a more selective consumer. However, in a context where brands seek to differentiate themselves by tangible quality and narrative of origin, leather – with traceability, low environmental impact and excellence in finishing – is consolidated as a strategic raw material.

They explain that for leather product manufacturers, 2026 will not be a year of euphoria, but it will be a year of repositioning and consolidation. The global recovery in the consumption of quality and natural products opens a window of opportunity for those who invest in innovation, certifications, design and alliances with brands that aspire to grow in markets such as the United States, China and dynamic Southeast Asia. In such a demanding and competitive time, quality leather is once again at the heart of the value proposition of aspirational items, which make a difference in the world.

And when we talk about the markets of Southeast Asia and, especially, the huge and decisive market of China, the attention always turns to APLF. The Asia Pacific Leather Fair is the great global meeting point for the leather industry and its manufactures, the annual event in Hong Kong that is the definitive thermometer of each year of this business sector.

For this reason, from March 12 to 14, the leather world will stop its journey to be expectant of this new edition in Hong Kong, which will undoubtedly be the effective engine to start a year of recovery, leaving behind doubts and worries. Participating in this edition will guarantee having the precise information to compete successfully in the times to come.

For more information, please contact the APLF team in [email protected].